Democrat Josh Turek Poised To Flip Senate Seat In Iowa & Could Ultimately Flip Senate Control To Democrats

The numbers look good in Iowa

Democrats haven’t carried the state of Iowa, since President Obama did it in 2012 & haven’t won a U.S. Senate seat since 2008...but all of that could change this November.

Recent polls coming out of Iowa, are showing Josh Turek, the Democratic nominee, leading Republican Ashley Hinson.

Turek, is a current member of the House of Representatives in Iowa, and his favorability numbers are outpacing that of generic Democrats in the Senate.

For complete transparency, Iowa is 1 of the 3 states I’m least confident in, where it comes to Democratic pickups this November.

On the map below, you’ll see 8 states that are a brown/tan color, these are the tossup Senate races this November, & Democrats need to win 8 of them in order to retake Senate control.

I have strong faith that Democrats will win in Michigan, North Carolina, & Georgia.

I also think the chances are high in Maine & Alaska.

However, I do have my concerns in Texas, Ohio, & Iowa, but let’s focus on Iowa for today.

We saw ample polling that showed that not only was Iowa in play for Kamala Harris in 2024, but that she should win the state. This cam from incredibly reputable pollsters at the time.

However, not only did she not win the state, she was blown out in that election.

With that being said, there is a strong through line from the last few elections that’s important to highlight here, that I want to share now.

1. Republicans do underperform when Trump’s name is not on the ballot. Whether this is while he is President, like in 2018, which saw a blue wave election. Or whether when he’s out of office, like in 2022, which promised a red wave year, but saw Republicans pick up only modest gains. Republicans don’t perform as well when Trump isn’t on the ballot.

2. One consistency of the last 2 elections - the economy was not doing well & the party in power was punished for that. I bet you can count on that again, especially in a state like Iowa, where the farming industry has suffered under Trump 2.0. Between tariffs & fertilizer prices (which have gone up because of the Iran war), farmers are hurting across the midwest. Something that Josh Turek has been leaning heavily into in his campaign

You combine these two points with the fact that Republicans have been retiring in masse, trying to redistrict, trying to pass voter suppression legislation, trying to purge voter rolls, & trying to deploy ICE to polling places…yes, they definitely feel vulnerable.

Do I believe the Democrats will flip this seat in November?

It’s hard to say.

As of now, I’m still less confident in Iowa, Ohio, & Texas, only because Republicans are starting from such a huge lead in these states. Trump won each by double digits in 2024. However, I do think all 3 are play & with the right campaign, I do think Iowa is poised to flip.

The economy, the one thing people expected Trump to fix, is in shambles under his leadership.

I expect this will lead to many Republican voters sitting at home this November, & so voting the other direction.

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Additional stories I wanted to share:

1. Tucker Carlson says “there's no chance I would support the Republican party” in this election - How could I support a political party that is not loyal to the United States. I voted Republican my entire life, I have been a consistent defender for 35 years of the Republican party, but there is no defending this. I'm out. Download the app to watch all videos on our posts

2. Federal judge halts Trump administration effort to subpoena Minnesota Gov. Walz, others in immigration enforcement probe - A federal judge has blocked an attempt by the Trump administration to subpoena Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and other state officials, accusing the Justice Department of using its investigatory powers to retaliate against state officials for not cooperating with federal efforts to crack down on illegal immigration.

   In a ruling unsealed Monday, U.S. District Judge Patrick Schiltz found the “dominant purpose” of the subpoenas was to “coerce Minnesota officials into assisting the federal government with enforcing civil immigration law and to harass and retaliate against them for failing to do so.” Reported by PBS

3. Democratic candidate for Senate (Maine) Graham Platner: “We must codify the right to an abortion.” - “We also must create universal childcare programs, universal healthcare programs, and expand and protect reproductive rights for all. It is the only way we are going to build a future in which every single American can have access to a life of dignity and fulfillment”

4. Vermont has banned AI chatbot therapy, passing a law that requires a mental health professional to conduct therapeutic services - Vermont Governor Phil Scott signed H.816 on June 17, 2026, barring companies from offering AI-delivered mental health therapy and joining a small group of states that began restricting AI therapists in 2025. The law lets clinicians use AI for administrative tasks but reserves diagnosis, treatment, and therapeutic decisions for a qualified mental health professional or an approved research study. Reported by Recording Law

5. During separate press appearances on Monday, Vice President Vance told reporters, "We want Israel's security to be protected, and we also want Lebanon's sovereignty to be protected." - These appear to be the first televised remarks by a Trump administration discussing the importance of “Lebanese sovereignty.” Notably, the first clause of the U.S.-Iran MOU officially commits the administration to "ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon."
   
   Vance criticized recent Israeli military operations in Beirut that killed Lebanese civilians with no connection to Hezbollah, calling the incidents "not acceptable" and stating that lasting peace requires ensuring "Lebanon's territorial sovereignty is respected by all parties."

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Until next time,

Desmond