Democrat Mary Peltola Poised To Flip Senate Seat In Alaska & Could Ultimately Flip Senate Control To Democrats

The polling has been consistent in her favor

Only 1 Democrat has been able to win a Senate seat in Alaska since 1970, recent polling shows Mary Peltola in poised to be the next to do so.

For those who don’t know, Mary Peltola won statewide in 2022 twice, in the state’s lone Congressional election. Like other small states in our country, Alaska only has one member of Congress, which like the Senate races, requires you to win the entire state.

Peltola was defeated when she ran for re-election in 2024, but it was by a 51-49 margin, in what turned out to be a wave Republican election.

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Now the polls have dramatically shifted against the Republicans nationally, as the 2nd Trump term has brought his approval to an all-time low, Republicans are fearing the worst for this year’s midterms (as evidenced by all of their changing of the maps in the South).

On top of this, Alaska is one of the few states that has implemented Ranked Choice Voting statewide, giving a more favorable edge to candidates that appeal to a broad range of voters.

With the Democrats needing 4 pick ups to flip the Senate back in their favor, winning Alaska would be a huge blow to MAGA control.

Several polls have been conducted in the state so far this year, and every time a poll has been conducted, the number increases in favor of Peltola

Below is a current projection of the Senate map.

The states that are greyed out, do not have a Senate election this year.

The one’s that are filled in with red or blue already, are the current projections of how pollsters believe that states will fall in November.

The tan ones, are tossup states. Those are the ones to focus on for this conversation.

Because the Republicans still control the White House, Democrats would need to get to 51, in order to control the Senate. Something most pollsters thought would be impossible 6 months ago.

However, with the release of the Epstein files, rising gas prices, rampant inflation, ICE terrorizing our communities, and on and on…The Senate is now back in play for the Democrats.

Democrats would need to win 5 of the 6 tan states in order to take control of the Senate.

Currently, 5 of these 6 states are being held by Republicans, with the lone exception being the Democrat Jon Ossoff holding the state of Georgia.

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Georgia

• Democrat Jon Ossoff currently has a strong polling lead against each of his potential opponents. Ossoff seems to be in the strongest position to win in November

North Carolina

• Roy Cooper, who is the former Governor, has been consistently polling high months now. It seems likely that North Carolina flips to the Democrats in November

Maine

• Graham Platner is the presumptive nominee, after Governor Janet Mills dropped out of the race. Several polls have Platner ahead of incumbent Susan Collins & I believe this seat will flip to Democrats in November

Alaska

• Given the information I’ve seen & thinking of the national landscape, I do believe Alaska will flip this November, with Mary Peltola securing a huge victory for the Democrats.

That just leaves Ohio & Texas. Democrats would need to win 1 of those 2 races in order to take the chamber.

Now, both Democratic candidates, Talarico & Brown, are leading in the polling thus far…but I am skeptical for the moment. Polling in Ohio and Texas has been inconsistent in the past, so I need to see more data over the next 2-3 months before I’m convinced.

I do believe the Democrats can win one, or both, of those races, but it honestly depends on how the rest of this year goes.

One thing is for sure, winning Alaska would be a huge blow to Donald Trump & right now, I do believe it will happen.

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Republicans trying to steal the House in 2026

Like many of you, I’ve been following the news this week, as we’ve seen Republicans steal voting power from the Black community all across the South.

Adding insult to injury, was the Virginia State Supreme Court’s decision to nullify the election results of their voting referendum.

When I saw that news earlier today I honestly wanted to scream. It feels more and more like the public will be pushed to the brink if these things keep happening.

I wanted to come onto hear and furiously type out my anger with this country, & the hopelessness I feel towards our situation sometimes, but instead I decided to go a different way.

I wanted to find a story that gives people something positive to cling onto, because the truth is, the moves you’re seeing from MAGA is a direct result of being afraid.

They know their time is almost over & they are DESPERATELY clinging to power. These moves come from tyrants who fear the public turning on them.

I’m sure this isn’t the last thing we will see from the GOP regarding the election in November, but I can guarantee you one thing…

Whenever we take control away from MAGA, we have to radically change our system, so this can never happen again.

In order for that to happen, we need Democrats who will actually fight fascism, not cozy up to it, or not meet these moments with the intensity they deserve.

Vote in your primaries everyone. Vote out the incumbents that have been silent, or worse, helping the MAGA agenda.

We need to get the right Democrats in office, so we stand a chance in removing the fascist Republicans.

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Until next time,

Desmond