Donald Trump's "Peace Deal" To End Iran War Is Likely To Fall Apart

Breakdown of details inside

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For about 24 hours now, the news cycle has been plastered with people talking about a “peace deal” between the United States & Iran, that is supposed to be signed in Switzerland this Friday, to hopefully bring an end to the war in Iran.

Before we jump into why this deal is likely to fail, let’s first look at the details of the agreement.

These details have yet to be confirmed by the U.S. government, but the Iranian government has released their understanding of the peace deal that will be signed:

1. $12 billion of Iran's frozen funds to be released before negotiations begin, with another $12 billion during the 60-day final negotiation window.

2. Oil and petrochemical sanctions suspended.

3. Full naval blockade lifted within 30 days.

4. The U.S. commits to non-interference in Iranian affairs, withdrawal of forces from around Iran, and no new sanctions or force deployments during negotiations.

5. An immediate ceasefire is required on all fronts, including Lebanon.

6. The Strait of Hormuz reopens within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.

7. Iran reaffirms its NPT commitment not to produce nuclear weapons.

8. A 60-day window is set to negotiate a final deal covering nuclear issues and full sanctions removal.

9. The U.S. and allies must also present reconstruction plans worth at least $300 billion.

10. Iran's missile program and support for resistance groups are removed from the agenda entirely.

11. No final negotiations begin until the $12 billion is released, oil sanctions are suspended, and the blockade is lifted.

12. A supervisory mechanism will oversee implementation, with any final agreement approved by UN Security Council resolution.

Now this isn’t the first attempt we’ve had at a ceasefire/peace agreement with Iran, and every time Iran has come to the negotiating table, they’ve made very clear that they will not agree to any deal with the United States that does not include Israel stopping its attack on Lebanon.

Every discussion we’ve had with them, they have said the same thing. They view the U.S. & Israel as a package deal, and they see Lebanon as one of their allies. So, no deal can be reached as long as Benjamin Netanyahu continues to invade Lebanon.

With that being said, the Israeli government has already come out & blasted this peace deal, with Israeli Defense Minister Katz saying:

The Israeli military will remain in southern Lebanon and warned that if Iran strikes, it will be hit “with full force,” promising that Israel will resist any pressure after the US and Iran agreed a deal to end the war that also reportedly includes a commitment to end hostilities in Lebanon.

Katz insisted that Israel will not withdraw from southern Lebanon, “despite all the existing pressures and those that will still come.”

“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and I are leading a clear policy that determines that the IDF will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, without any time limit.”

Reported by the Times of Israel

And if for some reason you’re thinking - “this won’t disrupt the entire deal, surely the United States & Iran can find a way to a peace deal that doesn’t include Israel stopping it’s attacks in Lebanon” …you’d be wrong.

As Drop Site News reported earlier today:

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Lebanese leaders that the United States is responsible for implementing the U.S.-Iran memorandum and ensuring a complete halt to Israeli attacks on Lebanon, according to an Iranian readout of his calls with President Joseph Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.

For the entire world to see - Iran considers Lebanon a part of the package deal & they will not agree to a ceasefire that does not include the United States forcing Israel to stop attacking Lebanon…but Israel has vowed not to stop.

So here we are, once again, being trapped in a war because of our inability to stand up to Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel has no desire to end its attacks & frankly, they don’t want the war in Iran to end.

Can Donald Trump force Israel to stop its attacks in Lebanon?

The short answer is - yes.

The United States has the ultimate high ground in this scenario, because it supplies Israel with protection & arms. Without the U.S. military protection & the weapons we provide, Israel would probably be overrun by their enemies.

All Donald Trump would have to do, is to threaten to remove aid & military protection, and he would definitely be able to force Israel’s hand. Yet, he seems to be unwilling to play that card, thus locking our country into this stalemate.

It’s hard to say what happens next, but I can’t imagine this peace deal going through with such a large obstacle standing in its way.

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Additional stories I wanted to share:

1. Vice President J.D. Vance alludes that the $300 Billion reconstruction fund is indeed a part of the U.S./Iran peace deal in CBS interview:

2. New York Times reports that Trump & Vance strongly considered invoking Insurrection Act in Minnesota to deal with ICE protests - “Vance got to the point. They needed to invoke the Insurrection Act, swiftly, to crush the unrest in Minnesota. It would be painful in the short term, he said, but the message it would send - that paid agitators could not get away with disrupting ICE operations - would make sure no one tried it again. (There was no evidence that either Mr. Pretti or Ms. Good had been paid activists.)”

3. Arizona Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs, suspends tax incentives for data centers - Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) signed a budget bill that imposes a three-year moratorium on new sales tax breaks for data centers, among the most restrictive state-level responses to an industry under fire from residents concerned about energy and water consumption. The moratorium was tucked into an $18 billion budget deal announced last week by Hobbs and Republican lawmakers.

4. Bots now generate more web traffic than humans - Bots now account for more web traffic than humans, according to Cloudflare Radar data cited by Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince. ⁠
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   The dashboard put automated traffic at 57.5% of HTTP requests to HTML content, compared with 42.5% from humans, reaching a crossover Prince had expected by the end of 2027.⁠
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   The shift is being driven by AI agents rather than older scraper bots and search crawlers. Prince said at SXSW that a person shopping for a camera might visit five sites, while an agent doing the same task could visit 5,000. ⁠
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   The change is pressuring publishers, advertisers and security companies whose systems were built around human users. Cloudflare has introduced tools including Pay Per Crawl, AI bot blocking and a machine-readable format for agents. ⁠Reported by Ground News

5. More Perfect Union posts video of what it sounds like to live next to a data center. You won’t believe what this sounds like:

   
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Final Note

I want to give a shoutout to all the new subscribers that have joined Independent Thought in the last month! In the last 30 days, we’ve gained more subscribers than any other month in the last 18 months.

Independent Thought now has over 18,000 subscribers & we’re in 125 countries!

Thank you to everyone for being here. I hope to grow this newsletter into something truly special.

Until next time,

Desmond